This is the second Farm Gal Market Update. A week after our first edition, the markets did not stay quiet. Wheat went limit-up on Black Sea turmoil. Corn pushed above $5.00 for the first time in two and a half years. Soybeans rallied hard on Chinese buying. And cattle stayed under pressure as cash trade dropped and policy headlines shook the board. Here is the breakdown for August 27, 2026.
Cattle
Live cattle Oct contract: $210.775/cwt, down $0.175. Aug contract: $218.475/cwt
What Happened
Live cattle futures were mixed on August 26. The August contract edged up 0.375 to close at $218.475 per hundredweight, but the October contract lost $0.175 to settle at $210.775. December feeder cattle closed at $212.575, up $0.45. Feeder cattle took a bigger hit, with September feeders settling at $319.00, down $0.27.
The real story was in the cash market. Northern cash trade on Tuesday came in around $345 dressed, down a full $10 from the previous week's weighted average. By Wednesday, live steers were trading at $218 to $220, down $7 to $8 from the prior week. That is a sharp drop, and it rattled the board.
Analyst Cassie Fish of The Beef summed it up: "CME cattle futures continue the path of least resistance today, making new lows for the move again." The market rallied midday Wednesday but collapsed in the final 30 minutes of trading, led by the October contract.
Two things are weighing on the market. First, the U.S.-Mexico border reopened to cattle imports on August 24 at the Douglas, Arizona port of entry. More feeder cattle from Mexico are expected to add near-term supply. Second, the Trump administration announced a deal to target a 25% reduction in ground beef prices, which sent shockwaves through the packer space. The August 13 Tyson plant closures in Joslin, Illinois and Pasco, Washington are still being digested by the market, and this new policy headline adds another layer of uncertainty.
The Cattle on Feed report earlier in August was bullish on the fundamentals. Placements were down, marketing was up, and the inventory is tight. But plant closures and policy fears are overpowering the supply story right now. DTN analyst ShayLe Stewart noted that bids have been softening all week, with packers holding their cards close.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Cattle are searching for a floor. Cash trade is the key number to watch. If dressed steers hold above $340 in the North, futures could stabilize near current levels. But if cash keeps sliding, the October contract could test $208. The ground beef price announcement is getting a lot of attention, and until the market understands what that actually means for packer margins, the uncertainty premium stays in play. The tight herd is the long-term story, but the short-term narrative is all about processing capacity and policy.
Corn
Sep contract: $5.055/bu, up 5¢. Dec contract: $5.275/bu, up 4¢
What Happened
Corn pushed higher on August 26, with September closing at $5.055 and December at $5.275. That is a 5-cent and 4-cent gain respectively, and it puts corn back above $5.00 for the first time since early 2024 in some contracts.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which wrapped on August 21, is still driving this market. The Tour pegged the 2026 U.S. corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre. That is well below the USDA's August WASDE estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre, and it puts production at roughly 15.344 billion bushels. The spread between the Tour number and the USDA number is 7.5 bushels per acre. On 90-plus million planted acres, that gap represents over 675 million bushels of potential supply that the trade now questions.
Day-by-day through the Tour, the numbers were consistent. Indiana came in at 183.5 bushels per acre on Day 2, down 5.3% from 2025. Illinois on Day 3 showed 184.19 bushels per acre, with kernel counts the lowest since 2013. Nebraska was down 8.9%. South Dakota was down about 14%. That is a lot of yield loss concentrated in the western end of the Corn Belt.
Export demand has been solid too. The USDA's weekly export sales report for August 20 showed corn net sales of about 1.05 million metric tons. Flash sales included 15 million bushels to Mexico and 5 million bushels to South Korea. That kind of consistent export business keeps a floor under the December contract.
The ADM Investor Services market view for August 26 noted that corn was finding support from the Crop Tour results, export demand, and the spillover strength from wheat's limit-up move. Weather through the remainder of August is favorable across most of the Corn Belt, so the crop is finishing without major stress.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
The December contract above $5.25 is a technical level worth watching. If it holds, fund money could add to net long positions. Export sales on Friday morning will be the next catalyst. If the USDA reports another big week of corn export sales, especially to Mexico, this rally has legs. Watch for profit-taking later in the week after the strong run, but the underlying supply story from the Crop Tour is supportive. The USDA's September WASDE report is about two weeks away, and the trade will be watching closely to see if USDA adjusts its yield estimate closer to the Tour number.
Soybeans
Sep contract: $12.5425/bu, up 26.25¢. Nov near $12.39/bu
What Happened
Soybeans had a strong session on August 26. September soybeans closed at $12.5425, up 26.25 cents on the day. Soybean meal was up $8.40 to $328.70. The November contract was trading near $12.39.
The rally was driven by multiple factors hitting at once. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour results are still being priced in, and the pod counts painted a mixed picture that, overall, leans supportive. Illinois came in at 1,430.37 pods in a 3x3 square, down 3.3% from 2025. Indiana was down 4.2%. Ohio was down 7% from last year. South Dakota was the worst, with pod counts down more than 20% due to drought and heat stress. Minnesota was the bright spot at 1,257.8 pods, up 0.8% from 2025 and 15.4% above the three-year average.
Chinese buying has been the dominant demand story. In the week ending August 13, China accounted for about two-thirds of new crop soybean export sales. U.S. soybean outstanding sales to China for 2025/26 stood at 5.83 million metric tons. Since mid-August, additional flash sales totaling over 26 million bushels to China have been announced. The export demand has been relentless.
The WASDE report earlier in August lowered the soybean yield to 52.7 bushels per acre from 53 in July, which was below trade estimates. Combined with the Crop Tour data showing pod count reductions in key states, the supply narrative is tightening.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Soybeans have momentum. The November contract near $12.50 is a psychological level. If it breaks through and holds, the next target is $12.75. Chinese buying continues to be the wild card. If another flash sale is announced, beans could push higher quickly. Weather remains favorable for pod fill across the western Corn Belt, so there is no weather premium building. Watch the weekly export sales report Friday morning. Any sign that Chinese buying is slowing could trigger a modest pullback, but the demand pipeline is full.
Wheat
Dec contract: $7.4825/bu (up 45¢, limit-up). Sep near $6.84/bu
What Happened
Wheat was the headline market on August 26. December CBOT wheat surged the 45-cent daily trading limit to close at $7.4825 per bushel, up 5.31% in a single session. It was the biggest single-day move in months and the market hit the limit hard.
The driver is the Black Sea, and it is getting worse, not better. By mid-August, over 97% of Russia and Ukraine's grain export capacity in the Azov and Black Sea basin was effectively shut down due to attacks on shipping, ports, and terminals. No grain shipments were leaving Ukraine's Black Sea terminals. In Russia, only a small facility in Tuapse remained operational, moving about 160,000 tons per month. That is a fraction of normal volume.
Ukraine's August grain exports were running roughly 75% below year-ago levels. Russian exports are forecast to hit a decade low. ProZerno estimated total Russian grain exports in August at about 2.5 million tons, compared to a five-year August average of 5.7 million tons. That shortfall of over 3 million tons in a single month is what lit the fuse under wheat prices.
On top of the Black Sea crisis, the European wheat harvest came in below expectations. COCERAL's July forecast put EU-27+UK wheat production at 140.8 million tonnes, down from 150.8 million tonnes in 2025. Heat stress slashed French yields. A summer heatwave cut across German and Polish production. Romania was the relative bright spot at about 13.9 million tonnes. The global wheat supply picture is tightening from every angle.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Wheat is in breakout mode. The limit-up move suggests more upside is possible if the Black Sea situation continues. Friday's export sales report will show whether global buyers are shifting their purchases to U.S. wheat. If export sales are strong, prices could push toward $8.00. Diplomatic talks are being discussed but nothing concrete has emerged. Any hint of a ceasefire or grain corridor deal would trigger a sharp reversal. For now, the trend is your friend, and the trend is higher. The Ag Bull Trading note called the market "an already bullish market" before this week, and the Black Sea risk has lit a match under it.
What This Means for
The Bottom Line
Wheat went limit-up and corn broke above $5.00 for the first time in years. Soybeans are riding strong Chinese demand. Cattle is the sore spot, taking heat from cash market weakness and policy headlines even though the long-term herd story is intact. For Wisconsin farm and land sellers, the grain market signals are running in your favor. If you own productive ground, the next two to three weeks may be the best window to list.
I watch these markets every day because they tell me what the buyers I work with are thinking. If you want to talk about what your farm or land is worth in this market, give me a call. I will walk your ground with you and give you an honest read on where things stand.
Read More on the Site
This update lives under our Cattle and Cash Crops section, where you can find deeper guides on cattle property, crop land, and what Wisconsin rural land is really worth.