Friday was the September WASDE, and it was a classic sell-the-news day. USDA tightened the corn and soybean balance sheets, but soybeans still got hammered on a surprise yield increase, wheat slipped on higher world stocks, and corn gave back a midday pop to settle lower. Cattle were the bright spot, rallying into the weekend, and they have kept climbing into Monday on cheaper corn. Here is the straight talk on Friday's close, what Monday's trade is telling us, and the look ahead over the next 48 hours.
Cattle
Fri Sep 11 close: Oct live $219.67/cwt, up $1.85. Oct feeder $332.50/cwt, up $4.95. Mon trade: live up around $1.20, feeders jumping on cheaper corn
What Happened
Cattle finished Friday strong and have carried it into Monday. October live cattle settled up $1.85 at $219.67 per hundredweight Friday, October feeders settled up $4.95 at $332.50, and lean hogs slipped $1.62 to $81.52. The cattle board liked what it saw from the WASDE: a tighter corn supply story knocks feed costs down, and cheaper rations put a floor under feeding margins, which is fuel for feeder cattle especially. Into Monday, October live cattle are trading up around another $1.20 and feeder cattle jumped again on that same cheaper-corn logic, with cash trade holding steady near $218 to $223 live.
The month-end backdrop is still the tight herd. Drovers has spent the summer pointing out that supplies are historically thin, herd rebuilding is delayed, and carcass weights are running at record levels, with analysts like Don Close and Randy Blach arguing the market structure still has room to push toward prior highs. The one nagging worry in the commentary is cheap beef imports: Drovers flagged that roughly 300,000 metric tons of imports concentrated in the fourth quarter could pressure domestic prices. So far the market is treating that as a headwind to watch, not a reason to back away.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
The next two sessions are a cash-market read with the monthly Cattle on Feed report coming Friday. Every cattle trader I listen to on the Cow Guy Close over on Rural Radio keeps hammering the same drum: on-feed numbers have rarely topped 12 million head in the past quarter-century, and the tight feeding pipeline is the whole ballgame. Cash around $218 to $223 with feeders climbing on cheaper corn is a friendly setup heading into that report. Watch the weekly boxed-beef tone Tuesday and Wednesday, and remember the import story is a fourth-quarter issue, not a this-week issue.
Corn
Fri Sep 11 close: Dec contract $5.30 1/4/bu, down 3 1/2 cents on a sell-the-news WASDE fade
What Happened
December corn settled Friday at $5.30 1/4 per bushel, down 3 1/2 cents, and it was the most interesting close of the day because of how it got there. The September WASDE cut the corn yield to 178.5 bushels an acre, below the 178.1 the trade was expecting, lowered production by 213 million bushels, and trimmed ending stocks to 1.567 billion bushels. Corn actually traded green right out of the report, up as much as 52 ticks, before late-session technical selling and profit-taking pulled it back under water. That is the textbook sell-the-news move after a run to contract highs in late August.
What matters underneath is how thin the market still is. USDA also raised the season-average farm price for corn to $4.80 from $4.50, which is a big signal about where they think cash values settle. Managed money came into this week from a record net-bullish position, so there is real length to be squeezed out if corn keeps fading. But a 213-million-bushel production cut on top of already-tight carryout is not a bearish sheet, and Monday's trade showed it: corn has been the most resilient grain in the complex, easing only marginally while beans and wheat gave up more ground.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Corn's job over the next two sessions is to hold the $5.25 to $5.30 area and see if end users and funds treat Friday's close as a buying opportunity. The wet forecast is the next real variable. The Corn Belt is looking at an unusually wet five-day stretch across its northwestern half, with widespread 1 to 2 inches and heavier pockets, and Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin are catching repeated showers into midweek. That slows harvest, delays drydown, and takes some hedge pressure off the market near term, which is supportive. USDA's weekly export sales Thursday will show whether world buyers are still treating U.S. corn as the value in the complex.
Soybeans
Fri Sep 11 close: Nov contract $12.96 1/2/bu, down 35 3/4 cents, the day's biggest grain loser
What Happened
Soybeans were the day's biggest loser Friday and have led the complex lower again Monday. November soybeans settled at $12.96 1/2 per bushel, down 35 3/4 cents, with soybean meal down $3.80 to $346.80 and soybean oil down 222 points to 69.19 cents. The culprit was the surprise inside the WASDE: instead of the yield cut the trade expected, USDA raised the soybean yield to 52.8 bushels an acre and pushed production to a near-record 4.535 billion bushels, above the 4.5 billion the market had priced. The report also raised the farm price 60 cents to $12.00, but when the yield goes the wrong way and production comes in at a near-record, the demand-side kindness gets ignored.
The sell-off hit a market that was positioned wrong-way. Soybean funds came into the report holding a record-long position built on the summer's bull run, and that length unwound hard once there was no bullish surprise to chase. USDA did trim ending stocks to 310 million bushels and raise exports to 1.69 billion, so the balance sheet is not loose by any means. But "tighter than August yet looser than expected on every line" is the phrase traders used, and on a near-record crop that read as a reason to take profits. Monday's trade confirms it: soybeans are leading the complex down as the record-long position keeps unwinding.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
The next 48 hours for beans is about finding the floor under a record-long position. The $13.00 line broke Friday and Monday's follow-through selling has pressure building toward the $12.80s, where chart buyers and crushers tend to show up. A wet week slowing harvest in the western belt gives beans a little weather premium to lean on, but the bigger question is whether the fund unwind has more legs. Thursday's export sales report is the demand check: strong Chinese and global buying is what pulled beans through the summer, and if that pace holds it puts a floor under the washout. If sales print soft, the correction runs deeper into the week.
Wheat
Fri Sep 11 close: Dec Chicago SRW $7.25 1/4/bu, down 16 cents on higher world stocks
What Happened
December soft red winter wheat settled Friday down 16 cents at $7.25 1/4 per bushel, and the driver was world numbers, not U.S. numbers. USDA left the U.S. wheat supply and use picture essentially unchanged and held ending stocks steady, raising the farm price 20 cents to $6.40. But world ending stocks came in at 276.29 million tonnes, above the 273.46 million the trade expected, and that was enough to knock the Black Sea premium out of the front of the market again. Wheat had built a war premium through late August as Russia and Ukraine kept striking each other's export infrastructure, and it keeps giving chunks of that premium back on any headline that reads like diplomacy.
Monday's trade has wheat staying weak on that same higher-stocks read even as the Black Sea shipping disruption keeps export sales and geopolitical supply risk in focus. This is a two-sided tape: the fundamental world balance is still genuinely tight, but it is no longer tight enough to justify the spike prices printed in late August. Wheat is the most headline-sensitive market in the whole complex, and it will stay that way until the Black Sea picture resolves one way or the other.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Wheat over the next two sessions is a headline trade. Any concrete sign of a Black Sea deal, or any fresh escalation at the ports, is a 10 to 20 cent swing waiting to happen, and there is no way to chart that. The $7.25 area is the line to watch on the downside, and the weekly export sales report Thursday shows whether world buyers have shifted more volume to U.S. origins, which would give wheat a reason to stabilize. Until the diplomacy picture clears, expect choppy two-sided action with wheat trading on headlines first and fundamentals second.
What This Means for
The Bottom Line
Friday's WASDE was a sell-the-news affair: USDA tightened corn and tightened beans, yet soybeans still fell 35 3/4 cents on a surprise yield increase and near-record production, corn gave back a midday pop to settle at $5.30 1/4, and wheat slipped 16 cents on higher world stocks. Cattle were the standout, settling up and climbing again Monday on cheaper corn with cash steady near $218 to $223. The next 48 hours are about a record-long soybean position finding its floor, a wet Corn Belt forecast slowing harvest, Thursday's export sales, and the Cattle on Feed report Friday. For Wisconsin farm and land sellers, profitable grain and steady cattle still support values, and the biggest report of the month is behind us.
I watch these markets every day because they tell me what the buyers I work with are thinking. If you want an honest read on what your farm or land is worth in this market, give me a call. I will walk your ground with you and tell you straight what I see.
Read More on the Site
This update lives under our Cattle and Cash Crops section, where you can find deeper guides on cattle property, crop land, and what Wisconsin rural land is really worth.