Farm Gal
Market Update

Monday was a rebound day and then some. Cattle shook off a rough week and caught the friendly surprise out of Friday's Cattle on Feed report, which showed August feedlot placements at the lowest level on record for the month. Grains jumped on the first positive readings out of the US-China trade talks, with wheat up nearly 2 percent and December corn back above $5.34, while soybeans rode Chinese buying into a summit now three days out. Here is the straight talk on Friday's close, Monday's trade, and the look ahead over the next 48 hours.

Cattle

Fri Sep 18 close: Oct live $215.92/cwt, up 27 cents, but down $3.75 on the week. Oct feeder $323.50/cwt, down 87 cents. Nov feeder near $318/cwt, down about $10 on the week

What Happened

Friday's close was the tail end of a rough week for the cattle board. October live cattle settled at $215.92, up 27 cents on the day but down $3.75 on the week, and feeders closed the week weaker still: October feeders finished at $323.50, down 87 cents, and November feeders lost about $10 on the week to near $318. The pullback was positioning, not demand. Cash trade held steady at $222 to $223 live in the South and $350 to $355 dressed in the North, and packers kept slaughter managed, with estimated weekly slaughter around 101,000 head, down 5,000. Boxed beef closed mixed: Choice at $371.94, down 21 cents, and Select at $353.26, up $1.38, a spread of about $18.68. Then the real news dropped after Friday's close.

USDA's Cattle on Feed report showed August placements of 1.62 million head, down 9 percent from a year ago, the lowest August placement total since the series began in 1996 and roughly 106,000 head below trade expectations. On-feed inventory came in at 11.16 to 11.2 million head, up 1 percent. That is the kind of report that sets up a rally: fewer cattle going on feed now means tighter supplies down the road, and the Rural Radio network coverage flagged it as the headline of the week. Analysts at Hales called the report "friendly to bullish" and looked for a higher opening Monday with follow-through buying in live and feeder futures.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are follow-through and cash. The trade is watching whether the Monday rally holds and whether packers come to the table at steady money, around $222 to $224 live in the South and near $350 dressed in the North. On the analyst side, Drovers has been hearing a bottoming argument: Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek said strong cash cattle and higher weekly closes suggested a bottom may be in place, though he was not ready to fully commit. Drovers' 2026 State of the Beef Industry report calls the business "profitable, pinned down," with a beef cow herd at historic lows, tight cow numbers, softening demand, and only a modest uptick in replacement heifers. That is the long-term backdrop: the supply story keeps getting tighter, and a record-low August placement total only adds to it. Watch the cash trade this week. It is the single clearest read on whether the board rally sticks.

Corn

Fri Sep 18 close: Dec contract $5.27 1/2/bu, down 3 cents. Mon Sep 21: trading back up around $5.34 1/2, up about 1.3 percent

What Happened

December corn settled Friday at $5.27 1/2 per bushel, down 3 cents, a weak finish to a soft week. The contract slipped below its 20-day moving average and posted its lowest close of the week Thursday before easing further Friday. The drivers were straightforward: harvest is accelerating across the southern belt, weekly corn export sales were sharply lower with new-crop commitments extending a slump, and traders were taking profits after the Federal Reserve decision earlier in the week. The Fed's 25 basis point hike to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, the first since 2023 and unanimous, had lifted commodities as an inflation hedge back on Wednesday, and a new US Russia sanctions law is adding fuel and fertilizer cost risk on the input side.

Monday flipped the tape. Corn traded back up around $5.34 1/2, up about 1.3 percent, as the first round of US-China talks came out positive on both sides and lifted the entire grain complex. The Fed backdrop still matters here: the Cow Guy, Scott Shellady, spent the week on the first rate hike since 2023 as the macro story, and that story runs straight through this week's trade too. Traders are watching $5.25 as the first support level under the market.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are a harvest and positioning story. The wet weekend that dumped 1 to 4 inches of rain across parts of Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is clearing, and the forecast opens a drier window through September 25, with the NWS 6-to-10-day outlook calling for above-normal temperatures and below-normal rain across much of the Corn Belt late in the month. That speeds dry-down and gets combines rolling, which means more hedge pressure on the board. Wisconsin was about a third of the way through silage harvest as of mid-September, and national corn harvest was 8 percent done in 13 key states, ahead of the five-year average. Watch the drier days and the summit: with fund length near records, any disappointing headline out of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting is a profit-taking excuse for the whole complex.

Soybeans

Fri Sep 18 close: Nov contract $13.03 1/2/bu, down 16 1/4 cents, but up 7 cents on the week. Mon Sep 21: trading around $13.12 1/2, up about 0.7 percent

What Happened

Friday was ugly for beans until you looked at the week. November soybeans settled at $13.03 1/2, down 16 1/4 cents on the day, but still up 7 cents on the week. The Friday drop was profit-taking in meal and oil plus harvest pressure, but the demand story underneath is hard to argue with. USDA's weekly export sales showed net soybean sales of 1.7 million metric tons including 875,300 metric tons to China, and the agency separately announced another 111,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2026/27.

China's imports of US beans did slip 12 percent in August, but the trade is looking forward, not back. Beijing booked at least 260,000 tons, four-plus cargoes, of US soybeans in the days leading into the summit, and Monday's positive read on the first US-China trade talks pushed November soybeans back up around $13.12 1/2, about 0.7 percent higher. Cash beans were running about $12.44 in the country, a wide basis story worth remembering when you are pricing a bin.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are all about positioning into Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting in Washington. The market is betting on reciprocal tariff relief, including possible removal of China's remaining 10 percent duty on US agricultural goods, and further Chinese purchases of US soybeans and farm products. That is a friendly setup, but it cuts both ways: fund net longs in corn and soybeans sit near record levels, so any letdown out of the summit is an excuse for the complex to give some back. On the supply side, national soybean harvest was 6 percent done in 13 key states as of mid-September, double the five-year average, and the drier window opening this week will only speed it up. Beans are a headline trade for the next two days, and the summit is the headline.

Wheat

Fri Sep 18 close: Dec Chicago SRW $7.14 1/4/bu, down 12 3/4 cents, third straight weekly decline. Mon Sep 21: jumped as much as 2 percent to near $7.27 1/2

What Happened

Wheat fell the hardest of the grains on Friday and rebounded the hardest on Monday. December Chicago soft red winter wheat settled at $7.14 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents, its third straight weekly decline, off about 11 cents on the week, and Kansas City December wheat gave back about 14 3/4 cents on the week to near $7.84. The money flow tells the story: spec funds flipped back to a net short in Chicago wheat as of September 15, a swing of roughly 9,000 contracts, and managed money trimmed its Kansas City net long by 5,490 contracts.

The demand side is the lag. US 2026/27 wheat export sales are running about 30 percent below last year at 9.18 million metric tons, around 44 percent of USDA's projected volume, with US wheat priced high against world offers. That is why the market sagged all week despite the Black Sea supply story staying live. Monday changed the tape: wheat jumped as much as 2 percent after the initial US-China talks were described as positive by both sides, with December Chicago last near $7.27 1/2, up about 1.8 percent, and hopes building for the leaders' summit later in the week.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are a headline trade, plain and simple. Wheat is the most headline-sensitive market in the complex, and this week every headline runs through Thursday's summit in Washington. A positive read on US-China trade is a bid under the whole grain complex, and soft red winter rides along. Also watch the weekly export sales number Thursday: a marketing-year pace running 30 percent behind last year needs to show signs of life for wheat to hold any rally. If the summit surprises positive, expect a short-covering squeeze in a market that just flipped funds to net short; if it disappoints, wheat gives back the trade-talk premium just as fast as it put it on.