Farm Gal
Market Update

Wednesday was a let-the-dust-settle day. Cattle shook off Tuesday's pullback and rallied back hard on the tight supply story, with October live cattle up $2.15 and feeders up $5.30 as cheaper corn gave them a tailwind. Grains eased for a second straight session ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit in Washington: December corn settled down 7 3/4 cents at $5.29, November soybeans slipped 7 1/2 cents to $13.18, and December wheat touched a four-week low near $7.08 1/2 as Black Sea ceasefire talk cooled the risk premium. Here is the straight talk on Wednesday's close and the next 48 hours.

Cattle

Wed Sep 23 close: Oct live $220.92/cwt, up $2.15. Dec live $222.35, up $2.90. Oct feeder $333.32/cwt, up $5.30

What Happened

Cattle bounced hard Wednesday after Tuesday's stumble. October live cattle settled at $220.92, up $2.15, December live cattle closed at $222.35, up $2.90, and October feeders led the way at $333.32, up $5.30. Tuesday's pullback was profit-taking and consolidation after Monday's surge off the Cattle on Feed report, with October live settling near $218.78 and December live at $219.45, down $2.55. Wednesday's rally was a midday push in the lives ahead of this week's cash trade, and feeders got an extra tailwind from a lower corn board, with December corn down 7 3/4 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle Index sat at $338.74 on September 21, down 71 cents.

The supply story underneath it all is still the same one that set this week up: USDA's Cattle on Feed report showed August placements down 9 percent from a year ago, a record low for the month, with cattle on feed on September 1 at 11.163 million head, up 0.7 percent against expectations of around 1.7 percent. August marketings came in at 1.519 million head, down 3 percent, the lowest August total since 1996. That is the backdrop Scott Shellady, the Cow Guy, flagged on RFD-TV's weekly update Monday as the headline of the week, alongside USDA's push to stand up more domestic beef processing. Drovers framed the week the same way, with a September 18 piece on the record-low placements feeding the cattle rally and a September 21 piece on how consumer demand, not just fewer cows, is what is holding beef prices up.

Cash was still quiet Wednesday. Bids surfaced in Nebraska around $223 live and $350 dressed and were passed, and the Fed Cattle Exchange auction saw no sales on the 1,696 head offered. Last week's cash ran $222 to $223 live and $350 to $355 dressed in the North and $225 to $226 live in the South, about a dollar higher. Boxed beef eased: Choice closed at $377.31, down $1.58, and Select at $352.34, down $5.51, a spread of about $24.97. Estimated slaughter was 94,000 head Wednesday, down 8,000 on the week and roughly 28,000 head below a year ago, with year-to-date slaughter running behind 2025.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are all about cash finally trading. Last week's light showlists got a little larger, which gives packers less inventory and more need to buy, and significant cash volume is expected to hold off until Thursday or Friday. Watch whether the board rally sticks when the bids actually surface, around $223 live and $350 dressed as a starting point. The longer-term picture from USDA ERS is low fed-cattle slaughter and lower beef production into 2026-27, and Drovers keeps coming back to demand holding the market up even as pork and poultry output grows. Tight supply plus steady demand is the read, and Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at 3 p.m. ET is the one scheduled wrinkle for the whole meat complex, a live read on what is coming down the hog pipeline and what that means for competing protein.

Corn

Wed Sep 23 close: Dec contract $5.29/bu, down 7 3/4 cents, near the daily low, second straight down day

What Happened

December corn settled at $5.29 Wednesday, down 7 3/4 cents, about 1.4 percent, closing near the low of the day for a second straight down day. Monday had spiked the market to a near three-year high on speculation Chinese state traders booked around 13 million tons, and Wednesday was the give-back: profit-taking and weak long liquidation off that pop, a stronger U.S. dollar near a two-month high that leaned on the whole grain complex, and growing harvest pressure. USDA's September 21 Crop Progress put national corn harvest at 13 percent, ahead of the five-year average of 8 percent, and that fresh crop is hitting the boards.

There was support underneath. USDA announced Mexico bought 100,000 metric tons of corn for 2026/27, and the prior week's net export sales ran a solid 1.027 million tons. So this is not a broken demand story, it is a positioning and harvest story. The other thing worth saying for folks here at home: the northern Corn Belt has been soaked, with southeast Minnesota through northeast Iowa logging more than 7 inches of rain this month, and Wisconsin was lagging the rest of the belt, with only 26 percent of the corn crop mature as of September 13 and 41 percent of topsoil short or very short of moisture.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are a weather-and-summit trade. NOAA's outlook points to a drier window September 23 through 27 across much of the Corn Belt, which is the signal combines have been waiting for after the record September rain, even with a frost advisory hanging over the upper Great Lakes. Dry weather speeds dry-down, gets combines rolling, and brings more hedge pressure to the board. On the demand side, Thursday morning's USDA weekly export sales report is the read on whether China is still loading, and Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting is the headline risk for the whole grain complex. Corn pulled back off a near three-year high on thin reason; a friendly headline out of Washington can put it right back, and a disappointing one gives funds an excuse to keep liquidating.

Soybeans

Wed Sep 23 close: Nov contract $13.18/bu, down 7 1/2 cents, easing into Thursday's summit

What Happened

November soybeans settled at $13.18 Wednesday, down 7 1/2 cents, in a tight, cautious session. Beans have rallied from the low $12s to above $13 on China-buying optimism, peaking near a two-and-a-half-year intraday high of $13.3525 on September 11, and this week the market is just waiting on Washington. No fresh sales of U.S. soybeans to China were reported this week, which capped the market, though China's state stockpiler moved to release domestic reserves to make room for incoming cargoes, a friendly signal on its own. Traders were looking for USDA's export sales report for the week ended September 17 to come in around 1.5 to 2 million metric tons, and that number drops Thursday morning.

On the supply side, the U.S. soybean harvest was about 12 percent done as of September 21, ahead of the five-year average of 8 percent, with roughly 58 percent of the crop rated good to excellent. More beans in the bin means more seasonal pressure, but the whole market is holding its breath for the summit before it makes up its mind.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

The next two sessions are about one thing: Xi Jinping at the White House. His state visit runs September 23 through 25, and agricultural purchase announcements, with soybeans reportedly on the table, are exactly the kind of headline that moves this market. The tariff truce expires November 10, so the stakes are real. Thursday brings two numbers to trade against it: the weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at 3 p.m., the latter a read on feed demand for the whole complex. Beans are a headline trade right now. A firm commitment from Beijing is fuel for a push back toward the highs; another session of no news and the seasonal harvest pressure keeps the market drifting.

Wheat

Wed Sep 23 close: Dec Chicago SRW $7.08 1/2/bu, down 8 3/4 cents, touching a four-week low

What Happened

Wheat fell the most of the grains Wednesday, with December Chicago soft red winter settling at $7.08 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents, after touching a four-week low. The trigger was Black Sea ceasefire talk: a Turkish proposal for a truce on strikes against commercial shipping raised hopes of de-escalation and took some heat out of the market. But the underlying disruption is still very much live, with more than 90 percent of Russia's Azov to Black Sea grain export capacity reportedly offline and importers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa struggling to line up supplies. Russia also moved to abolish export duties on grain and is working with Turkey on shipping safety. December SRW had settled at $7.27 on September 17 and around $7.13 on September 18 before this week's slide.

U.S. wheat export sales are the lagging piece. USDA's weekly number came in around 325,900 metric tons for the week ended September 10, in line with expectations of 150,000 to 500,000 tons, and running above the prior week's pace. The bull case for wheat is still the Black Sea; the bear case is a market that has priced a lot of it in and is now watching every ceasefire headline for an excuse to give premium back.

Next 48 Hours Outlook

Wheat is the most headline-sensitive market in the complex, and the next two days have plenty of headlines. A Turkish-brokered truce that actually holds is the biggest risk to the risk premium, but so far the disruptions are still real and cargoes are still hard to secure. Thursday's weekly export sales report is the demand check, and Thursday's summit in Washington is the wildcard that can lift or sink the whole grain complex in one headline. Short-covering is the upside risk here: with funds having rebuilt positions into this rally, any fresh disruption or friendly trade news can squeeze the board quickly. Watch the Black Sea news flow and the export number, in that order.