September opened with the grains pulling back from fresh highs on profit-taking, while cattle stayed on the defensive against a quiet cash market and a run of policy headlines. Corn touched another three-year high before giving ground Wednesday. Soybeans ran to a two-and-a-half-year high, then faded. Wheat backed off its multi-year peak as Russia moved to keep grain flowing out of the Black Sea. Here is the straight talk for the first sessions of September and the look ahead over the next 48 hours into the weekly export numbers and the September WASDE on the 11th.
Cattle
Tue Sep 1 close: Oct live cattle $212.07/cwt, down 60¢. Dec live cattle $213.37, down $1.20. Oct feeder $315.40/cwt, down $1.63
What Happened
CME cattle futures closed lower to start the week on profit-taking and a fresh round of policy and trade headlines. On Tuesday, September 1, October live cattle settled down 60 cents at $212.07 per hundredweight, December live cattle fell $1.20 to $213.37, and October feeder cattle declined $1.63 to $315.40. Feeders took extra pressure from higher corn, which pushes up feeding costs and breakevens. The feeder cattle cash index kept sliding too, down to about $319.43 per hundredweight, roughly 8% below where it sat a month ago.
Cash trade opened the week quiet. Bids and asking prices were slow to surface Tuesday, showlists were smaller across the major feeding areas, and the market expected the real volume midweek or later. Where trades did happen, Western Livestock Journal counted 2,905 head sold Tuesday with live steers around $218 and dressed steers near $345.40, and a few early dressed purchases in Nebraska marked around $345. Boxed beef turned higher to start the week, with the Choice cutout up $3.93 to $379.75 per hundredweight and Select up $1.96 to $360.45, leaving the Choice to Select spread at $19.30.
The bearish headlines carried more weight than the firming boxed beef. Traders were factoring in a temporary U.S. waiver on beef import tariffs, the reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle imports, and the administration's stated push to lower retail beef prices. The long-term story has not changed: the herd is still tight after the August packing plant closures, and analysts keep saying the packers hold the upper hand for now but that tight fed supplies could rebuild producer leverage down the road.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Cattle into Thursday come down to one number: cash. If negotiated trade firms in the upper $340s to $345 dressed and live steers hold near $218, October futures can steady in the low $212 area. If cash stays thin and soft, look for another leg lower as the market works off the tariff waiver and import news. Watch the weekly export sales report Thursday for beef demand, and keep an eye on any movement out of Washington on import policy, because that headline has been moving the board more than the fundamentals lately. Fall is shaping up as a bumpy, two-way market, and nobody is ready to call a trend while cash trades this lightly.
Corn
Wed Sep 2 close: Dec contract $5.43 1/2/bu, down 2 1/2¢, after touching another contract high early
What Happened
December corn rallied about 8 cents Tuesday to around $5.45 3/4 per bushel, then closed Wednesday down 2 1/2 cents at $5.43 1/2 after touching yet another contract and three-year high early in the session. It has been a straight run of fresh highs since corn cleared the $5.00 level in late August, and the pullback on Wednesday was profit-taking, not a broken trend.
The support is three-sided. First, the Black Sea grain conflict keeps disrupting Ukrainian shipments and pressing global supply. Second, U.S. ethanol and processing demand is strong and has been a steady buyer. Third, oppressive heat across much of the Midwest is keeping yield expectations under pressure with harvest right around the corner. Composite crop condition ratings have slipped to season lows, with corn around 61% good to excellent versus 72% a year ago. On the other side, the market got technically overbought after the run, and profit-taking plus some hedge pressure pulled prices back from the highs even as the Black Sea headlines stayed hot.
Analysts are already pointing at the September WASDE due September 11. The read from the trade is simple: if USDA cuts its corn yield estimate and raises exports, the stocks-to-use ratio tightens further, and some analysts think corn could run toward $6.00. That is a big if, but it is the number everyone is trading toward right now.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Corn sits in friendly territory into Thursday and Friday. The weekly export sales report lands Thursday, and a strong sales print, especially to Mexico, keeps the momentum. Support comes in right around the $5.40 to $5.43 zone after Wednesday's fade, and a firm hold there sets up another test of the highs. The risks are a pullback in the Black Sea risk premium if any corridor talk gets real, and more hedge pressure ahead of harvest. Until the September WASDE on the 11th, the supply story is supportive, and the bias is to buy dips rather than sell strength.
Soybeans
Wed Sep 2 close: Nov contract $13.10 1/4/bu, down 7 1/2¢, after trading to a two-and-a-half-year high early
What Happened
November soybeans closed Wednesday at $13.10 1/4 per bushel, down 7 1/2 cents, after trading to another contract high, a two-and-a-half-year high, early in the session before late profit-taking and technical selling erased the gains. Soybean meal finished $3.00 lower at $349.60. By Thursday morning the benchmark was holding near $13.04, basically flat and hugging the recent highs.
The run into the highs was demand and weather. The EPA biofuel announcement, 18 small-refinery exemptions plus 11 partial ones for 2025, lifted the soybean oil outlook and pulled the whole complex up. China has kept loading U.S. beans, with about 905,000 tons booked for 2026/27 delivery to China and unknown destinations, and USDA announced another flash sale of 202,000 metric tons to China on September 2. On the supply side, hot, dry Midwest weather has crop conditions slipping to around 58% good to excellent, keeping yield uncertainty alive heading into the September 11 WASDE. After that run, shorter-term traders took profits off the table and the market faded from the highs.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Beans are overbought but backed by real demand, and that combination usually means dips get bought. The $13.00 area is the line in the sand: a firm hold there into Friday and the market can press back toward the highs. The weekly export sales report Thursday will show whether the Chinese buying binge is cooling or still going. Another USDA flash sale would push the board higher in a hurry. Watch the Midwest forecast too, because continued heat and dryness in the final fill stretch keeps a weather premium in the price. The September WASDE on the 11th is the big one, and the market is pricing in a yield cut.
Wheat
Wed Sep 2: Dec SRW contract around 775 3/4¢/bu, down 6 3/4¢, after setting contract highs and retreating
What Happened
Wheat opened September extending its rally, with Chicago soft red winter wheat up 4 1/4 to 9 3/4 cents Tuesday and December closing about 1.1% higher, open interest building by roughly 12,816 contracts as new money came in. Then the market backed off. By Wednesday, December SRW was last trading down 6 3/4 cents at 775 3/4 cents per bushel after setting contract highs and retreating, still within shouting distance of its highest levels since early 2023.
The Black Sea is still the whole story. Russia rejected another attempt to reopen Black Sea grain flows, and Ukrainian exporters were reportedly told to prepare for months without deep-water ports. Ukraine's August grain exports fell roughly 58% from a year ago. But the thing that capped the rally Wednesday was Russia suspending its floating export duties on wheat, barley, and corn through the end of 2026, a signal that Russian supply will keep moving. Traders read that as a reason to cash in some of the war premium, and the market faded from the highs on profit-taking.
Next 48 Hours Outlook
Wheat is a headline market and the next 48 hours come down to the Black Sea again. The weekly export sales report Thursday will show whether world buyers are shifting purchases to U.S. wheat, and any talk of a corridor deal would take the air out of the rally fast. Russia's duty suspension is a fresh overhang, and the market is working off an overbought technical setup. But the fundamental disruption to Ukrainian exports is real, and as long as that conflict keeps shipping in doubt, wheat keeps a risk premium. Expect two-way volatility, and treat sharp breaks as news-driven rather than a change in the trend.
What This Means for
The Bottom Line
The grains spent the first sessions of September making highs and then giving some back on profit-taking, but the underlying stories are intact: a tight corn and bean supply picture heading into the September WASDE, relentless export demand, and a wheat market holding a Black Sea premium. Cattle is the odd one out, drifting on thin cash and import headlines even with the tight long-term herd story. For Wisconsin farm and land sellers, the grain signals are running in your favor in the front half of the fall window, and the profit-driven operator is alive and looking.
I watch these markets every day because they tell me what the buyers I work with are thinking. If you want an honest read on what your farm or land is worth in this market, give me a call. I will walk your ground with you and tell you straight what I see.
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This update lives under our Cattle and Cash Crops section, where you can find deeper guides on cattle property, crop land, and what Wisconsin rural land is really worth.